Mexico has unexpectedly reaped benefits from the latest tariff war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, with the country's exports to the United States seeing a significant increase. Thanks to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Mexico's effective tariff rates remain considerably lower compared to those imposed on goods from other countries, including China. This advantageous position has allowed Mexican exports to the U.S. to grow by 9% this year, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Despite Trump's imposition of a 25% "fentanyl tariff" on all Mexican goods, and additional high tariffs on key items like automobiles, steel, and aluminum, Mexico's manufacturing exports have continued to thrive. This is largely due to the provisions of the USMCA, which allows for significant tariff exemptions, with approximately 85% of Mexico's exports to the U.S. enjoying duty-free status.
The trade volume between the two nations is expected to reach a historic $900 billion this year, underscoring the robustness of their economic relationship. Mexico's effective tariff rate on U.S. exports is a mere 4.7%, far below China's 37.1% and the global average of 10%, positioning Mexico as a strategic partner for the U.S. in its efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese imports.
The U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, has highlighted Mexico's pivotal role in the U.S.'s supply chain recovery strategy, indicating that increased imports from Mexico are helping to offset the trade deficit with China. Despite the looming 2026 review of the USMCA, analysts believe that Mexico and Canada will continue to benefit from lower tariffs due to their deep economic integration with the U.S.
As Mexico solidifies its position as the largest overseas supplier of goods to the United States, surpassing China, it becomes evident that Trump's tariff policies have inadvertently bolstered Mexico's competitive edge in the North American market.
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