In its annual forecast for the coming year, the Financial Times (FT) predicts a significant downturn in AI investments, alongside continued global interest rate cuts and challenges for Tesla in the electric vehicle market. The British daily, known for its economic and political insights, outlined these predictions on December 31.
FT anticipates the "AI bubble," which has driven an investment frenzy in recent years, will burst in 2026. The report suggests that while large, diversified companies may withstand the downturn, venture capital and private equity firms could suffer substantial losses. Smaller companies might even face collapse as the market adjusts, with a potential stock price decline of 10-15%.
The newspaper also projects that U.S. President Donald Trump will find it challenging to impose further tariffs next year. The sharp stock market decline following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April, along with Chinese retaliation threats and rising consumer prices, have weakened tariff momentum. FT forecasts that threats of new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals will likely be retracted, and existing tariffs may see reductions through temporary agreements.
In the political arena, the FT predicts that the Democratic Party will regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, although the Senate will remain just out of reach. This shift would allow the Democrats to obstruct President Trump's legislative agenda and launch investigations into administrative misconduct.
On the economic front, FT foresees a continuation of the global trend of interest rate cuts. Excluding Japan, central banks are expected to lower rates further, with the U.S. Federal Reserve likely to lead the charge under a new chairman. The move reflects a willingness to embrace a 'new normal' of lower rates despite existing inflation concerns.
Tesla's prospects in the global electric vehicle market remain dim, according to FT. The expiration of federal tax credits in the U.S. is expected to maintain pressure on the company, while competition from Chinese automakers like BYD poses additional challenges in Europe and China.
Lastly, the FT speculates that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will resist Russian and U.S. pressure to cede the eastern Donbas region. The newspaper notes that such a concession would pose significant military, constitutional, and political risks for Ukraine, making it unlikely unless a severe breakdown in defense occurs.
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