North Korea–China–Russia vs. U.S.–South Korea–Japan: A New Cold War Duel

At 10:00 a.m. on September 3, 2025, Tiananmen Square in Beijing. The world’s 7 billion people held their breath as Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stood shoulder to shoulder on the reviewing stand. It was a massive military parade marking the 76th anniversary of the founding of the PRC and the 80th anniversary of victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan. But the real meaning lay elsewhere. The sight of the three leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia together was not a mere commemorative event—it was the official declaration of a “New Cold War.”

[CEONEWS = Jaehoon Lee, Editor-in-Chief] At 10:00 a.m. on September 3, 2025, Tiananmen Square in Beijing. The world’s 7 billion people held their breath as Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stood shoulder to shoulder on the reviewing stand. It was a massive military parade marking the 76th anniversary of the founding of the PRC and the 80th anniversary of victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan. But the real meaning lay elsewhere. The sight of the three leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia together was not a mere commemorative event—it was the official declaration of a “New Cold War.”
“When comrades, a new era has arrived!” As Xi’s speech filled the square, tension spread across the faces of Western diplomats. The 30-year post–Cold War order was closing, and a world split into two blocs was beginning anew.

■The North Korea–China–Russia Triangle: An Authoritarian Alignment

▲Xi Jinping’s Ambition: “The Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation”

At 10:00 a.m. on September 3, 2025, Tiananmen Square in Beijing. The world’s 7 billion people held their breath as Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stood shoulder to shoulder on the reviewing stand. It was a massive military parade marking the 76th anniversary of the founding of the PRC and the 80th anniversary of victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan. But the real meaning lay elsewhere. The sight of the three leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia together was not a mere commemorative event—it was the official declaration of a “New Cold War.”

China no longer speaks of a “peaceful rise.” As of 2025, the Xi administration has shifted to an “offensive hegemony.” The new weapons unveiled at the parade are proof. The DF-27 hypersonic glide vehicle, reportedly capable of Mach 10, can strike anywhere in the U.S. mainland within an hour. Fifty J-35A stealth fighters sliced the sky in perfect formation, a direct challenge to the F-35’s dominance. The GJ-11 unmanned combat aircraft and AI-enabled autonomous weapon systems herald the opening of the “unmanned warfare” era. Chinese military analyst Zhang Weiping said, “China has signaled a firm intent to close the military gap with the U.S. by 2030.” Indeed, China’s defense budget this year is $296 billion—36% of America’s $816 billion.

▲Putin’s Calculation: An Exit from Western Sanctions

With the war in Ukraine grinding into a fourth year, Russia has chosen a different route—rather than total rupture with the West, it has opted for a “pivot to the East.” In his speech, Putin declared he would “build a just international order against unilateral Western sanctions and hegemony.” Trade with China has already reached $240 billion annually, sharply increasing Moscow’s reliance on Beijing. Notably, Russia has elevated North Korea from a mere “problem state” to a “strategic partner.” Intelligence assessments suggest North Korean artillery shells and missile know-how—along with up to 100,000 personnel—are supporting Russian forces on the Ukrainian front.

▲Kim Jong Un’s Gambit: A Nuclear Card Elevated

The most dramatic change is North Korea’s status. Once a “headache” for China, Pyongyang is now treated as a “core partner.” Kim Jong Un sitting right next to Xi was symbolically huge—worlds apart from the 1950s, when Kim Il Sung stood in the fourth row beside Mao. North Korea has become the “key card” for Beijing and Moscow to check Washington. Pyongyang has flaunted the completion of its nuclear force with 17 missile launches this year alone. With the solid-fuel ICBM Hwasong-18 reportedly deployed, assessments say it has acquired the capability to strike the U.S. mainland. The U.S. Department of Defense estimates North Korea possesses 50–60 nuclear warheads, potentially exceeding 100 by 2030.

■The U.S.–South Korea–Japan Alliance: The Democratic Camp Strikes Back

Facing the North Korea–China–Russia bloc is the trilateral security alignment of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. U.S. President Donald Trump, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reaffirmed an “Indo-Pacific Trilateral Alliance” at Camp David in August. The U.S. has fully integrated Korea and Japan as core pillars of its Indo-Pacific strategy.

▲The Trump–Lee Jae-myung–Shigeru Ishiba Triangle

Facing the North Korea–China–Russia bloc is the trilateral security alignment of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. U.S. President Donald Trump, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reaffirmed an “Indo-Pacific Trilateral Alliance” at Camp David in August. The U.S. has fully integrated Korea and Japan as core pillars of its Indo-Pacific strategy. The three agreed to real-time missile data-sharing, regularized joint drills, and co-development of advanced weapons. In particular, Korea’s Kill Chain and Japan’s counter-strike capability will be linked to deter North Korea’s nuclear-missile threat.

▲Japan’s Declaration of Military Power

The most notable shift is in Japan. The Ishiba government has inherited the Kishida cabinet’s policy of possessing “enemy base strike capability,” effectively hollowing out the old pacifist framework. Japan plans to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, becoming the world’s third-largest military power. The planned purchase of 400 U.S. Tomahawk missiles would put North Korea and China’s east coast within range. Add to that domestically developed hypersonic missiles, and Northeast Asia’s military balance will fundamentally change.

▲South Korea’s Dilemma: Dual Pressure of Security and Economy

South Korea stands in the most complex position—leaning fully on the U.S.–Japan alliance for security, yet economically intertwined with China. China is Korea’s largest trading and investment partner. In 2024, Korea–China trade reached $362 billion, or 23% of Korea’s total trade. The problem: strengthening the U.S.–Japan–Korea alignment almost guarantees Chinese economic retaliation. During the THAAD deployment, China’s sanctions cost Korea an estimated $15 billion per year. Experts warn that as the New Cold War hardens, the damage could be far greater—even with the Lee Jae-myung administration’s efforts to stabilize ties with Beijing.

■The Tech Hegemony War: A New Battlefield

Korea stands at the epicenter of this seismic geopolitical shift. The “strategic dilemma” of relying on the U.S. for security and on China for the economy will sharpen.

 

▲The Semiconductor Clash

This is not merely a military standoff. At its core lies a war for technological supremacy—semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, batteries, and beyond. Through the “Chip-4” framework (Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Netherlands), the U.S. is blocking China’s access to advanced chips. The ban on exporting ASML’s EUV lithography systems and Applied Materials’ etching tools to China is emblematic. In response, China has declared a “semiconductor rise,” racing to secure 7-nm-class production capacity; Huawei’s Kirin 9000S shows those efforts. Performance aside, it demonstrates an attempt to circumvent Western restrictions with indigenous tech. Korea sits on the front line of this tech war. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix control 70% of the global memory market, yet face a dilemma over continuing investment and operations at plants in China.

▲The Supply-Chain Tsunami

Since COVID-19 and the Ukraine war, supply chains are being reorganized with “security” over “efficiency.” The U.S. and Europe are reducing dependence on China through friend-shoring. Apple is shifting iPhone production from China to India and Vietnam. Tesla plans to cut reliance on China in its battery chain to below 50% by 2025. China, meanwhile, is building its own economic sphere via the Belt and Road Initiative and leveraging a China-led CBDC payment network to challenge dollar hegemony.

■The Korean Peninsula: The Fuse of the New Cold War

▲A World Where the 38th Parallel Is Redrawn

The peninsula is both a symbol and the most dangerous powder keg of the New Cold War. Memories of the Cold War—liberal democracy and socialism facing off across the 38th parallel—are returning. North Korea amended its constitution to label South Korea an “enemy state” and has fully abandoned unification discourse. Declaring that “inter-Korean relations are those of two hostile states in a state of war,” Kim Jong Un has made the permanence of division a fait accompli. Seoul has shifted its North Korea policy from “denuclearization” to “deterrence.” The Lee administration modified the previous “Audacious Initiative” into “phased trust-building,” but Pyongyang’s hostility has effectively made “peace through strength” the new baseline.

▲The Fear of a Nuclear Domino

The most alarming scenario is nuclear proliferation. As North Korea’s nuclear force advances, support for an indigenous South Korean nuclear program is surging—76% of the public favors it, according to polls. On the right, voices argue that “as long as Pyongyang won’t give up its nukes, Seoul must seriously consider the nuclear option.” If South Korea goes nuclear, Japan may follow. Northeast Asia could see an unprecedented five nuclear-armed states (China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, Japan).

▲The Taiwan Strait: Another Flashpoint

Alongside the peninsula, the Taiwan Strait is a second fuse. As the possibility of a Chinese invasion rises, South Korea could face a “second Ukraine” situation. Washington would likely ask Seoul to participate in Taiwan’s defense. But if Korea involves itself in Taiwan, Chinese retaliation is unavoidable. Seoul could face the worst case—losing both security and economic stability.

■Survival Strategy: The Return of Balance Diplomacy

▲Is There a Third Way?

Korea’s options are limited in a New Cold War. A purely pro-U.S. line is difficult; strict neutrality is equally hard. History, however, suggests creative solutions. Finland survived the Cold War through “Finlandization”—military neutrality with economic cooperation with the West. Austria maintained balance as a permanently neutral state. Seoul must explore an independent path using “strategic ambiguity”: rely on the U.S. alliance for security, keep economic ties with China, and hedge by deepening relations with Southeast Asia, India, and other third regions.

▲The Urgency of Technological Autonomy

Above all, Korea must secure “technology chokepoints” in fields where it has comparative advantages: semiconductors, AI, batteries, and bio. Korea’s global No. 1 positions in memory chips and batteries are strategic assets in themselves. Because both Washington and Beijing need Korea’s technology and capacity, neither can pressure it recklessly. The government has announced a ₩622 trillion “K-Semiconductor Belt” to build a system-chip ecosystem, and aims to enter the “Technology G7” by adding next-gen batteries, aerospace, and bio.

▲Leveraging Soft Power

Korea’s other asset is soft power. The Korean Wave—K-pop, K-dramas, K-beauty, K-food—has become a global cultural phenomenon. BTS, BLACKPINK, Parasite, and Squid Game have elevated Korea’s national brand. Cultural influence can become a foundation for political-economic cooperation. As today’s Hallyu fans become tomorrow’s adults, their favorable views can translate into diplomatic capital—an inherent strength China and Russia lack.

■2025: The Moment of Choice

Korea stands at the epicenter of this seismic geopolitical shift. The “strategic dilemma” of relying on the U.S. for security and on China for the economy will sharpen.

What we witnessed at Tiananmen on September 3, 2025, was not mere political theater—it was the “official proclamation” of a New Cold War. An era of direct confrontation between the authoritarian alignment of North Korea–China–Russia and the democratic alliance of the U.S.–South Korea–Japan has opened. Korea stands at the epicenter of this seismic geopolitical shift. The “strategic dilemma” of relying on the U.S. for security and on China for the economy will sharpen. Yet crisis is also opportunity. If Korea secures space for independent survival through technology, soft power, and creative diplomacy, it can be a winner in the New Cold War. The wheels of history are turning again. Where will the ship of Korea head? Finding that answer is the most urgent task before us in 2025.