Goldman Sachs, a leading U.S. investment bank, has retracted its prediction that the U.S. economy would enter a recession this year. This shift comes after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs. Initially, Goldman Sachs had projected a 65% chance of a recession, marking it as their base-case scenario. However, Trump's decision to pause tariffs exceeding 10% on countries other than China led Goldman Sachs to revert to its earlier stance of no recession. The bank now anticipates a -1.0% economic growth rate and a 5.7% unemployment rate for the year, although it maintains that previously existing tariffs and a 25% sectoral tariff will persist.
The announcement has sparked mixed reactions among financial experts. JPMorgan plans to review its forecasts, suggesting that the trade policy's impact may be less severe than initially feared. Conversely, Citigroup economists caution that the tariff suspension does not guarantee the avoidance of an economic slowdown or inflationary pressures. They note that the U.S. effective tariff rate has risen significantly, driven by a 10% base tariff, a 125% additional tariff on Chinese imports, and sectoral tariffs on industries like steel and automobiles. This trade uncertainty, combined with increased imports from non-Chinese sources, could dampen growth in the upcoming quarter. Citigroup also anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the coming months to mitigate economic risks.
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