By Park Soo-nam
In a move that reverberated through international markets, former President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday the imposition of at least 10% tariffs on a wide array of global trading partners—virtually every country on the map. Yet conspicuously missing from the list was one of America’s long-standing geopolitical rivals: Russia.
A Strategic Exception or a Political Calculation?
According to a statement provided to Axios by Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, Russia was excluded due to the extensive U.S. sanctions already in place. Leavitt emphasized that these sanctions have "essentially curtailed any substantial trade" between Washington and Moscow. Still, this rationale has raised eyebrows, as trade with Russia, although significantly reduced, remains more robust than with some minor nations that found themselves on Trump’s tariff roster—such as Mauritius or Brunei.
Notably, even remote overseas territories like Tokelau, a sparsely populated South Pacific dependency of New Zealand, and Svalbard, an Arctic archipelago under Norwegian sovereignty, were not spared. These additions suggest an effort by Trump’s team to cast a wide net—making Russia’s omission all the more conspicuous.
Context: Trade Volumes and Sanctions
In the aftermath of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, bilateral trade between the U.S. and Russia saw a dramatic collapse—from roughly $35 billion in 2021 to just $3.5 billion last year. This plunge was largely driven by an array of economic penalties levied against the Kremlin.
While the Trump campaign insists the absence of Russia from the tariff blueprint stems from existing sanctions, there are growing suspicions that broader diplomatic considerations may be at play. Sources familiar with U.S.-mediated ceasefire negotiations suggest that Moscow has privately urged Trump to consider easing some restrictions as a condition for advancing talks—discussions that have since stalled.
Escalating Rhetoric and Potential Sanctions Ahead
Despite Russia’s current exemption from new tariffs, the relationship between Trump and President Vladimir Putin appears anything but cordial. Just this week, Trump publicly criticized Putin over his remarks regarding Ukraine, expressing deep frustration. He further hinted at the possibility of imposing secondary sanctions specifically targeting Russian oil exports—a critical revenue stream for the Kremlin.
Leavitt confirmed that the Trump administration remains open to “imposing further robust sanctions” on Russia if deemed necessary.
Other Major Players Left Out
Russia was not the only notable absentee from Trump’s aggressive tariff rollout. Neighboring trade giants Canada and Mexico were also excluded. However, Leavitt clarified that this is because both countries are already subject to 25% tariffs implemented under previous Trump policies.
Cuba, Belarus, and North Korea were similarly omitted, not due to favoritism, but because existing sanctions and trade restrictions are already at maximum intensity.
Conclusion: A Message Beyond Trade
While the tariff expansion appears to be aimed at asserting America’s economic leverage on a global scale, the deliberate exclusion of certain nations—particularly Russia—suggests a more nuanced geopolitical strategy may be unfolding. Whether this reflects an effort to preserve diplomatic flexibility or signals shifting priorities in Trump’s foreign policy playbook remains a subject of intense scrutiny among analysts and global leaders alike.
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